We take a look at Liverpool’s current position, and examines how Chile has provided a blueprint for Liverpool FC to adapt in order to bring back the glory days.

Liverpool FC - How Sampaoli's Chile Provides A Path Back to Glory

Liverpool’s Competitive Disadvantages

Liverpool are not a top club now. In terms of history, tradition, and silverware over the entire history of professional football, few clubs in the world can match them, and I would argue none in England can. However, that means little when it comes to attracting the best talent in the world. Players, especially those outside of England, care about the wages they receive, their ability to compete for major domestic titles, and their ability to play/compete in the Champions League. Liverpool lack the financial firepower of sugar daddy clubs like Chelsea or Manchester City, and lack the ability to produce revenue like Arsenal or Manchester United. They have not won the league since before the Premier League began, and their legitimate titles challenges have been far and few in the Premier League era, the last one in 2008-09. Finishing 7th, 6th, 8th, and 7th the past four seasons means that their last stint in the Champions League was during the 2009-10 campaign. All of these factors mean that if Liverpool want to get back to the summit of English football, they cannot operate on or off the pitch in the same way as Arsenal, Chelsea, United, or City or keep operating as they currently do. That is a path to perpetual mediocrity. They must adapt to their current position in the tier below the established powers, if they wish to break back into that top tier. To do that they must look to take advantage of the status quo of English football, and one template they should look at is Chile and their 3-4-3.

How Chile Adapted and Thrived

Chile, going into 2007, had failed to qualify for World Cup 2002 and 2006 and had been knocked out in the first round of the 2004 Copa America. They had never finished better than 11th in the four World Cups they had qualified for after they hosted the 1962 World Cup. They never had the talent to compete consistently with Brazil, Argentina, and the other football powers inside and outside of South America. Enter Marcelo Bielsa. With his high pressing 3-4-3 system, Chile beat Argentina for the first time in any qualification process and finished 2nd in CONMEBOL for World Cup 2010. They finished second in their group, behind Spain, winning two of their three matches, before losing in the Round of 16 to Brazil. However, despite being signed to a five-year extension, the election of Jorge Segovia as President of the Chilean Football Board, led to Bielsa following through on his threat to quit, if such an outcome occurred. Chile hired Claudio Borghi to replace Bielsa, and underwent an unsuccessful change in style and system.

Problems with Claudio Borghi’s 3-4-1-2

Unlike his successor or his predecessor Claudio Borghi used a 3-4-1-2 formation, rather than a high pressing 3-4-3. In his 3-4-1-2, the defensive line sat rather deep (much deeper than during Bielsaai??i??s reign). When in possession, either one of the wide center backs would move up-field and further wide as the defensive midfielder would drop deeper, or the center back would stay home and the defensive midfielder would move up the pitch. Either way, a 3-man unit in defense was formed. The wing backs provided width (though sometimes it would be one of the wide center backs), but, often did not provide adequate width in the attacking third. Chile deployed the rest of their players in a 3-man central midfield, a reference point center forward, and a free roaming support striker in Alexis Sanchez.

Chile's general set-up under Claudio Borghi was a 3-4-1-2 that did not press effectively enough and lack penetration, while leaving too much space in front of the back line.

Chile’s general set-up under Claudio Borghi was a 3-4-1-2 that did not press effectively enough and lack penetration, while leaving too much space in front of the back line.

This gave Chile the ability to retain possession and therefore see a majority of the ball. However, despite their continued efforts to press their opponents, their play was often slow and they created too few quality chances. To me, the biggest issue with the system came down to two aspects. With a front two, playing against a team with a back three or with a discipline RB/LB gave their opponents a spare man at the back. Even if you have the attacking midfield looking to close down the passing lanes, a RB/LB or DM can drop deeper to restore the opponentai??i??s spare man, without sacrificing much going forward. This allowed their opponents to play around Chileai??i??s pressure, and that meant that all Chile accomplished, through their pressing, was to wear down their attacking front. Also, with a deeper defensive line, there was too much space between the midfield and the back line. That gave opponent an outlet to relieve the pressure, and gave players like Lionel Messi plenty of space to operate. Poor performances with Borghiai??i??s 3-4-1-2 formation led to his sacking. Chile went back to the Bielsa School of Football and hired Jorge Sampaoli and his high pressing 3-4-3.

An Analysis of Jorge Sampaoli’s Base 3-4-3

In Sampaoliai??i??s 3-4-3 (probably better called a 3-3-1-3, though Sampaoli has shown a willingness and ability to adjust his tactics to better exploit his opponents as he did against Spain going with more of a 3-3-2-2), the front line has a central reference point with two wide forwards. Behind the front line are two midfielders, with one sitting deep and the other in a relatively free role, and two wing backs. And, the back, they have stuck with a back three, though this one plays a high line.

The return to the 3-4-3 under Jorge Sampaoli saw the return of the high line, the return of up to six men pressing higher up the pitch, and return of Chile's success

The return to the 3-4-3 saw the return of the high line and the return of up to six men pressing higher up the pitch

Sampaoliai??i??s Chile attack with six and defend with four, while Borghiai??i??s Chile looked more like a 7+3 side. So even though they press high up the pitch and play a high line, they have more men allocated to defensive roles. When it comes to the attacking front, though the number of attacks has decreased, they are placed on the field in better positions to successfully press. As I said before, pressing with a front two and an attacking midfielder can make it too easy for an opponent to play around the pressure (unless your opponent leaves their two FBs high up the pitch leaving them with only 2 CBs and a DM at the back). In this formation, Chile press with a band of three and another band of three in support. The front three press the opponents back line. If the opponent only has a back three, then there is no pressure release valve except for the keeper.

If the opponent plays the ball into the keeper, then the center forward presses the keeper, with the central midfield taking up the position the CF vacated. The wing backs then position themselves to deny any easy passing lanes. This leaves the goalkeeper with the option to boot it long, which most of the time is a win for the defense, as the high back line and the defensive midfielder in front of them removes the potency of a ball into the area in front of the back line. The only option with a reasonable chance for a successful long ball would be one that breaks the offside trap. Ai??He could try to pick out one of the FBs out wide, with a ball over the top, but that calls for the goalkeeper to make a precise pass to get the ball to his teammate without kicking to an opponent or out of play.

Against a 2+1, favored by many teams who play a 4-2-3-1, the center forward can press the goalkeeper and force the keeper to make a play with little consequence, if the advanced central midfielder understands and can execute his role.

Against a 2+1, favored by many teams who play a 4-2-3-1, the center forward can press the goalkeeper and force the keeper to make a play with little consequence, if the advanced central midfielder understands and can execute his role.

Against a 3+1 or a flatter four man unit, the front three press high as do the wing backs. If the ball is in the center of the pitch, the system is not much different to the case of Chileai??i??s opponent having a back three, with the exception being a more cautious approach in going after the keeper. Pushing up the center forward, should only happen if the passing lane from the keeper and the center back does not open. Pushing up the center forward and the central midfielder should only happen if there if there is a need to close the GK-CB passing lane, without having to open up the passing lane from the keeper to the central defensive midfielder.

Against a 3+1 back of a 4-2-3-1, the CF can press the goalkeeper if he does so while simultaneously denying the passing lane to the central defender. Also, the advanced central midfield needs to be in position to close down/cut off the passing lanes to the two central midfielders.

Against a 3+1 back of a 4-2-3-1, the CF can press the goalkeeper if he does so while simultaneously denying the passing lane to the central defender. Also, the advanced central midfield needs to be in position to close down/cut off the passing lanes to the two central midfielders.

If a ball is played to the RB or a wide RCB, the left forward and the left wing back can close him down, using the touch line as a third defender. The rest of the four move to eliminate the near-side passing angles. This leaves the RB/RCB with the option of dribbling through the pressure, playing a dangerous back pass, playing a cross-pitch pass (also dangerous), or hoofing the ball forward. The scenario plays out in a similar fashion for a ball played to the left side. Fans of the NBA, in particular the Chicago Bulls or Boston Celtics, should be more than familiar with the tactic of overloading of the ball side and leaving only dangerous passing angles (and low quality shooting options) as it is something that has been the foundation of the best defenses in basketball, especially over the past five seasons.

The team flows with the ball to overload the strong side. Tom Thibodeau would be proud.

The team flows with the ball to overload the strong side. Tom Thibodeau would be proud.

While we can see the defensive advantages of a high pressing, its best attribute is that it is on the best offensive weapons in football, particularly in this system. With as many as 6 men high up the pitch, a ball won in the opponentai??i??s defensive third presents a rare situation in football, a clear numbers advantage for the attacking team. In some situations, Chile can have a two or even three man advantage when attacking (6 v 3, 6 v 4, 5 v 3). Also, when Chile win the ball back, their proximity to goal greatly decreases their opponentai??i??s ability to have reinforcements come from higher up the pitch to assist defensively and prevent a goal. To operate offensively, with these conditions, would be valuable to any side, but they are particularly valuable to a team that lacks creativity, especially in the center of the pitch.

Liverpool have some of the same problems Chile had under Claudio Borghi. Like Chile, Liverpool often enjoy a good amount of possession in matches, but fail to create enough quality chances, given the possession they enjoy. They do sit their midfield deeper than Chile, but that creates a whole new set of problems. Unlike Chile, their midfielders and wing backs are in worse positions to make runs from deep into the 18-yard box. A combination of their slow play and their deep midfield hurts their ability to get the ball to Luis Suarez and Daniel Sturridge efficiently, as they have to rely on long balls played into the space behind the full backs or a player carrying the ball into the attacking third.Ai??Those two players’ preference, to stay high up the pitch, works with the problems in Liverpool’s midfield to isolate for extended periods in a match.

How the 3-4-3 Gives Liverpool an Advantage and Hides Some Weaknesses

A high pressing 3-4-3 could be the system that ultimately takes Liverpool from having hope for a top 4 finish to having real hope of winning the league. Not only does it give them a way to create high quality chances without having rely on midfield creativity, it makes them a unique problem for other Premier League side to solve. Looking at the landscape of the Premier League, it is a much more tactically homogenous league than the other big leagues in Europe. Few teams have adopted pressing as the foundation of their team, Southampton being the most obvious example. Almost all the teams in the Premier League play with a back 4. Many teams lack ball-playing central defenders, and very few teams have or look to have a goalkeeper like a Victor Valdes or a Manuel Neuer, who plays adeptly with the ball at his feet. So, if done correctly, a high pressing 3-4-3, could wreak havoc in the Premier League. It is something these sides have little experience facing, and if only one team utilizes such a system, teams may not be willing to adapt as quickly. Teams have a limited amount of resources to build and train their sides, if 18 other teams play somewhat similarly, and one other team play a completely different system, trying to adapt a squad or training to play that one odd team could hurt your ability to play against the other 18. The marginal cost of the reduction in effectiveness against the 18 would likely outweigh the marginal benefits from increasing oneai??i??s effectiveness against the one odd team.

Liverpool Have Many of the Pieces for a 3-4-3

Looking at this Liverpool side, they already have some of the components to pull this system off. Luis Suarez and Philippe Coutinho could operate in the wide forward positions (read: not wingers) having the freedom to interchange positions and play relatively freely in possession. That type of role suits of their natural tendencies in attack. Daniel Sturridge would serve as that central reference point, which not only puts him in a good position on the pitch (though his ability to play the killer through ball does come into question); it puts him in the central role he wants to be in. Maybe I am looking too much into his past behavior, but getting Sturridge games in a central position should make it more likely he stays happy at the club.

Behind that front 3, the continued development of Jordan Henderson could see him become an ideal player for that more advanced, more mobile central midfield role. While he is no Arturo Vidal (and who could be since he is in a class with Paul Pogba, Ilkay Gundogan, and Javi Martinez as the most complete midfielders in the world), his athleticism and all-around abilities allow him to carry out the many roles that position would call upon him to do. What is crucial is that his tactical understanding continues to improve because there is a large amount of intelligence needed to play in that role. If he is not up to the level needed to play in that role, he could end up converted to deep-lying midfield role. His athleticism and tackling, in theory, should allow him to be a productive shield in front of the back three. Also, his ability on the ball, relative to the other options for that position, would be highly valuable as a deep-lying passer, either in the back three or in central midfield, is crucial to get the ball from the back 4 to the front six without being too reliant on the wing backs bridging the attack and defense.

In the wing back positions, Liverpool have Glen Johnson and Luis Enrique. They should be fine options in positions further up the pitch. However, they do lack adequate depth behind them. If Victor Moses can be taught about how to take better angles when pressing players and cleans up his sloppy tackling, you have a player would could theoretically fill in at either LWB or RWB, who adds quickness in the high press and another dribbler/penetrative player when the ball is won back (granted Liverpool would want to buy him from a more than willing to sell Chelsea). But even if Moses developed into a player suited to that role, additional cover is still required. Maybe Ryan McLaughlin and/or Jordan Ibe could develop to play in as high pressing wing backs.

Before the Revolution, Some Infrastructure Needs to be Put in Place

However, the positions that would derail Liverpoolai??i??s ability to go to a 3-4-3 would be the other non-Henderson midfield position and the back three. The other midfield position becomes less of an issue if Henderson can play the all-around role. Lucas Leiva provides a decent shield for the defense, though he does not have the ideal range of passing. Joe Allen does provide good distribution from that position and at Swansea showed an ability to defend well with a midfield partner. With this system call for the members of the back 3+1 to have either aerial ability or pace to deal with the balls coming into that area, Allen does not represent a good option defensively.

If Henderson is more suited to the role of a shielder, then it leaves Steven Gerrard for the all-around role. Now from 2005-2007, this would be the ideal role for Steven Gerrard, as he was at his all-around best and most willing to play an all-around midfield role. In 2013, Steven Gerrard, is no longer the athletic he once was. Ideally, he would play in an attacking midfield position with the rest of the midfield working to make up for his defensive deficiencies. His lack of high level athleticism and tactical awareness makes him ill-suited for either midfield role (though he could do a job in the central position of the front three). Ultimately, without an all-around midfielder, this system falls apart. Therefore, Liverpool would need to find a player for that role before even considering this system. Sadly, Arturo Vidals are not a dime a dozen.

Looking at the back three, they have plenty of strength and aerial ability when it comes to Mamadou Sakho, Martin Skrtel, Kolo Toure, and Daniel Agger, Liverpool do not lack size or strength. Aggerai??i??s ability on the ball helps to limit the impact of Lucasai??i?? lack of passing range (though he could wind up leaving Liverpool after this season, given the recent history of a rumored move to Barcelona). The biggest problem is that this back line lacks speed and agility. Depending on the development of Tiago Ilori, Liverpool may have part of a solution to their lack of pace at the back and his passing ability (that I saw when watching Portugal at the U-20 World Cup) could soften the blow of an Agger transfer. If Andre Wisdom makes the transition to center back, then he would add another defender who satisfies the systemai??i??s need for pace in the back line. So while there are questions as to whether they will reach their potential, a back three of Ilori, Wisdom, and Sakho living up to or close to their ceiling would provide Liverpool a fantastic back three for this type of 3-4-3.

A Silver Lining Playbook for Some Potential Departures

Since Liverpool is not a top club, there is a real possibility that players like Luis Suarez and Daniel Agger leave after this season. While this could negatively impact the club, high enough transfer fees would allow Liverpool to make this transition more easily, as they would have the funds to strengthen and change their squad to fit the 3-4-3. Sixty million euros for Suarez from Real Madrid and another 15-20 million euros for Agger, plus whatever they get/save in wages selling players like Skrtel, Allen, Sebastian Coates, etc. could create a large enough war chest to find the right central midfielders, find cover or improve the wing back positions, and still find a replacement for the wide forward position.

Conclusion

Liverpool have to acknowledge their position in both English and European football. They cannot play the same game as the modern established powers and expected to break into that exclusive club. They need advantages to make up for their lack of attractiveness to the best players. The 3-4-3 could give them an advantage by making them a unique, difficult to prepare for, force in football. And it is these types of changes/risk taking that Liverpool need to do to push themselves higher in England, and ultimately, Europe. They have to innovate in how they develop and manage their players. They have to be creative with their tactics and player selection. They have to adapt, or be happy with top 8 finishes and the occasional trip to the Europa League.

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