Italy coach Cesare Prandelli has been spoken very highly of for his insistence on methods and organization. In a do or die contest against Uruguay, he might need to abandon them.

Prandelli

Tele-simulators often provide fascinatingly perfected solutions to all the challenges concerning football. Modern day coaches are known for their preference for technologyai??i??s recommendations in chalking out their game strategies and plans. To a large extent, the conclusions you derive out of a system programmed to analyze a sporting event are fairly accurate ones since the system operates on well processed data and trusts nothing but empirical evidence. However, the greatest limitation to a system is that it believes in patterns.

Percentages and probabilities are governed by the principles of permutations and combinations, and they are finite events even in theory, forget practice. Thereai??i??s only so much degree of variance in action that the autobots, even those programmed with the most neatly written algorithms, are going to offer. And hence, analysis that is deeply reliant on an artificial systemai??i??s power to deconstruct tactics will leave some areas untouched because real football is unfortunately played by real human beings who are annoyingly unpredictable.

Take a look at the lineup Italy coach Cesare Prandelli fielded a few days ago in the Group D encounter against Costa Rica. At a glance, youai??i??d be convinced beyond doubt that it was more than good enough to register a second successive win and secure Italy a passage to the next round with a game in hand. Prandelliai??i??s tinkered diamond had as many as five midfielders at work, each with a distinctly identified role for himself ai??i?? a ball winner and an anchor to defence in De Rossi, a holding anchor who could dribble in Motta, a tireless engine in Candreva, an intelligent runner off the ball and a more than handy shooter in Marchisio, and above everything else, a Pirlo in Pirlo. That makes for a combination of players par excellence and, in all likelihood, too much to handle for an opposition visibly inferior in pedigree.

Now, should the game have progressed in accordance with the Prandelli designed system, it shouldnai??i??t really have taken Italy too long before a defence bisecting ball from Pirlo was at the mercy of Balotelli to delicately put into the back of the net. In fact, the Milan forward did find himself with one such opportunity, which he inexplicably squandered, but Balotelli bashing may be the order for another day. The larger point that Prandelli must address is why his side failed to create enough of these chances for one to be converted. After all, the percentage games always take into account the chances of failure, and hence the attempts must always outnumber the scope of an unsuccessful event.

Where Italy missed the trick is not in reading Costa Ricaai??i??s gameplan. They were entirely accurate in their analysis and were spot on both with team selection as well as tactics. In Thiago Motta, they had deployed an additional ball winner who means business when he tackles and is a decent passer of the ball too. It allowed Italy greater freedom to roam around with the ball, and their sideway passing delimited the chances Costa Rica thrive on to engineer a counter from. In fact, one may even discount the goal Italy conceded at the stroke of half-time as a misreading of a cross by the centre back who lost track of his man. But itai??i??s not the goal Costa Rica scored that actually won them the game, itai??i??s the change of tactics from then on that did the trick.

Quite contrary to the inputs Prandelliai??i??s systems would have provided from Costa Ricaai??i??s game against Uruguay, they held a much wider shape against Italy. This denied Italy enough time on the ball in the opposition half and left them perpetually frustrated. Prandelliai??i??s substitutions thereafter were evidently reactive to the situation and ultimately Italyai??i??s attacking line was stuffed with too many players for any of them to operate with ease. Losing the ball cheaply and being trapped offside was the flavour of the season for Italy forwards, and much to everyoneai??i??s astonishment, Costa Rica had accomplished what seemed hardly plausible. Prandelliai??i??s emphasis on organization and methods, which has yielded him a fair share of success in these four years, failed to find answers when his implemented methods were entangled by a strongly determined and thoroughly resistant force. What Italy lacked was imagination.

And thatai??i??s exactly what they are going to need in abundance to defeat an enigma called Luis Suarez on Tuesday, in a direct contest to seal a spot in the final sixteen. Of the four departments on the pitch, Italy are better off Ai??in three of them if the squads are compared on paper. But a Luis Suarez running with the ball at his feet defies all logic and conventional wisdom. Prandelliai??i??s methodical assertions might compel Italy to go by the books, attempt to isolate Suarez on the right and sit deep on that flank. But that could very well be their undoing. The moment Italy take the backseat, Suarez could ensure theyai??i??re pushed further back, and thereai??i??s only so much any team would be able to survive against his pace and craft. Italy need to abandon what seems reasonable and instead take the driverai??i??s seat, diversify the attacking options through their superiority in midfield and frustrate Suarez for the ball.

The defeat to Costa Rica has resulted in Italian mediaai??i??s calling for the reintroduction of 3-5-2 ai??i?? a formation that worked admirably against Spain during the group stages in Euro 2012, but which has since seldom been deployed. It is believed the Juventus three man backline allows Italy more strength in defence and that the current fullbacks might serve the team better if theyai??i??re relieved of their defensive duties a bit. The attacking line too should be reinvigorated with the in-form Ciro Immobile as the target man, since he surely has operated at a better conversion rate than Mario Balotelli in the last twelve months. De Rossiai??i??s likely absence in the middle might unsettle Italy to a great degree, and that is all the more reason for not playing a regressive game.

In the end, the tactical diagram that is deployed only adds to the detail. The bigger question that Prandelli must ask his troops is whether he can trust them with taking a leap that involves the risk of failure. Because the safety approach might in all probability only delay the failure that looks imminent with Suarez on the field. Itai??i??s never easy to let instinct take over reason, but then bigger battles arenai??i??t won easily either. Methods arenai??i??t just enough at times. Although Otto Rehhagel will vehemently disagree, thatai??i??s a different matter.

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