Saturday sees two of the best performing sides in the Premier League square off in North London. Not only have they performed well, but they are also two of the more tactically intriguing sides in England. Both sides use what could be called a 4-2-3-1, but go about it in different manners. Arsenal have been the Premier Leagueai??i??s best attacking side (just because a side leads the league in goals does not mean they are the best attacking sides) characterized by overloading central midfield and fluid attacks in the attacking third. Southampton, lacking the creative quality of Arsenal, play a more direct brand of football, relying more on their high pressing to serve as their most potent creative and defensive force. It has been that change in philosophy under Mauricio Ponchettino that has turned the Saints from a side that conceded 6 goals at the Emirates last season into the best defensive outfit in the English Premier League. Certainly, this appears to be the best EPL match of the weekend for the footballing purists (and hipsters).

Southamptonai??i??s Attack: Some Similarities to Arsenal, but Certainly More Direct

The attacking trio has an asymmetric nature similar to Arsenal, when Theo Walcott is in the side. Like Santi Cazorla for Arsenal, Adam Lallana operates well wide left or as the central attacking midfielder (and will drift to the right side as well), and he switches those roles with Jay Rodriguez effortlessly (which is why I feel labeling Lallana as the LAM or CAM is irrelevant). When Southampton are in possession, Lallana will often come infield from his wide left position to receive the ball and to overload the center of the pitch, forming a diamond/rhombus with Rodriguez, Schneiderlin, and Wanyama. His versatility and technique allows him to drift into any position in the attacking third. This makes the runs of Jay Rodriguez hard to contain as he can run into the channels, from the areas of the pitch Lallana vacates. Their movement also leaves plenty of space for Luke Shaw to bomb into and deliver a ball into the box. On the right side, James Ward-Prowse stays wide right, giving Southampton some width on that side, and has built up quite a relationship with right back Nathaniel Clyne. All of this occurs as Rickie Lambert plays the same role Olivier Giroud does for Arsenal.

Unlike the other two in the attacking trio, Prowse is much more likely to stick to his side and operate in deeper positions. Data from fourfourtwo.com statszone.

Unlike the other two in the attacking trio, Prowse is much more likely to stick to his side and operate in deeper positions. Data from fourfourtwo.com statszone.

While this sounds a lot like Arsenalai??i??s set up, there are some key differences. First off, Southampton are a much more direct side compared to Arsenal. They are more than willing to play long passes in order to quickly push the ball up the field. While they can control possession, they prefer their attacking midfielders to make runs from deep attacking the back line, rather than dropping into deeper positions. Rickie Lambert is more than capable at holding the ball up and playing midfield runners in on goal. If Pablo Osvaldo starts instead of Lambert, due to the glute injury Lambert picked up while playing for England, he has the potential to do some of those things, but is a threat himself to get behind the line and score goals, though he has had a much harder time doing for Southampton than he did playing in a wide position for AS Roma last season.

For Arsenal, the back line needs help from the midfield to pick up these runs from deeper positions. In particular, runs between the center back and the full back could prove particularly troublesome. If either Bacary Sagna or Kieran Gibbs find themselves in a 2-on-1 and take the overlapping full back, then there is a good chance that the center forward, Lallana, and Rodriguez are each running into either the gap between the center backs or the two center back-fullback gaps (Ward-Prowse tends to switch position with Clyne so there is always someone occupying the right back and wide right positions, making him a less likely candidate to make a forward run). Even if Arsenalai??i??s center backs are aware of the runs, there are only two players to defend the three runners (unless the far side fullback somehow gets in front of the far side runner). Therefore, midfielders like Mikel Arteta and Aaron Ramsey need to track these runs. This is where the absence of Mathieu Flamini, due to yellow card accumulation, could hurt Arsenal. If the midfielder fail to track those runs, Southampton overloading the penalty box will lead to some clear cut chances, and with their defensive record, they may only need to convert one to win.

Southampton are not afraid to throw men into the box, a defining element of Arsenal from 2002-2004. Given the difficulty of the back line reacting quickly and effectively enough to pick up these deep runs, the Arsenal midfield need to track these runs or risk conceding many quality chances.

Southampton are not afraid to throw men into the box, a defining element of Arsenal from 2002-2004. Given the difficulty of the back line reacting quickly and effectively enough to pick up these deep runs, the Arsenal midfield need to track these runs or risk conceding many quality chances.

It may be that the best way to avoid the threat of Southampton in the attacking third is to press them higher up the pitch. In particular, when Arsenal lose possession around Southamptonai??i??s back line and midfield base pair, the attacking midfielders should look to hunt in packs to win the ball back. At the very least, it slows down Southamptonai??i??s progression up the field, allowing the defenders behind them to organize and communicate their assignments. In particular, Victor Wanyama and Morgan Schneiderlin should be targeted by Arsenalai??i??s midfielders and for different reasons. Victor Wanyama is the Southampton midfielder who is most likely to have possesion and then lose it while in Southamptonai??i??s defensive half. While he has strength and energy, he does not have the technique to keep the ball under pressure, let alone the technical skills to punish pressing opponents with an incisive pass or an exhibition of tight control. Morgan Schneiderlin, on the other hand, operates much like Mikel Arteta does for Arsenal. He can make a tackle, but prefers the interception, and in possession, he does well to keep possession and is an effective passer. If Arsenal can effectively press the Frenchman, then they do a world of good when it comes to hampering Southamptonai??i??s progression up the field.

While Southampton have plenty of ability with the ball, they may be at their most dangerous when their opponent has the ball. It is this battle, between Arsenalai??i??s possession football and Southamptonai??i??s high press, which will go the farthest in determining who will win this match, if one team does end up winning.

Southamptonai??i??s Pressing vs. Arsenalai??i??s Ball Control

With Arsenal seen as the superior side and playing at home, it seems likely that Arsenal will look to control possession. Arsenal have come up against sides that press (Borussia Dortmund come to mind), but they have yet to play a side whose employ a high pressing style. While Dortmund often allowed Arsenal to reach the center of the pitch before looking to win the ball back, Southampton will look to push their defensive lines up the pitch to win the ball back as high up the pitch as possible. When Southampton press, they will look to turn their 3-1 (of the 4-2-3-1) to press the back line and the goalkeeper. Nathaniel Clyne and Luke Shaw, though Clyne more than Shaw, will push up to close down wide outlets. Morgan Schneiderlin or Victor Wanyama will push up the pitch to close down/cut off the passing lanes to any additional deep central midfielders Jay Rodriguez/Adam Lallana (whoever is in the central position at that moment) cannot cover (in this match, Santi Cazorla will be their number one target to close down, as he comes deep and infield from his left attacking midfield position). The other member of the double pivot sits in a deeper midfield position, and behind him, Jose Fonte and Dejan Lovren keep a high line (or push the line higher) to decrease the amount of space in front of them.

Southampton do a good job forcing mistakes and low success passes out their opponents. Now Ozil could drop deep into that pock to receive the ball, but Shaw and Schneiderlin serve as threats to intercept a ball played over Lallana's head. This is a reason why a goalkeeper who can make a defense splitting pass like Neuer or Valdes is so valuable.

Southampton do a good job forcing mistakes and low success passes out their opponents. Now Ozil could drop deep into that pocket to receive the ball, but Shaw and Schneiderlin serve as threats to intercept a ball played over Lallana’s head. This is a reason why a goalkeeper who can make a defense splitting pass like Neuer or Valdes is so valuable.

When the goalkeeper has the ball, if Southampton does not win the ball back, the only ai???safeai??? play they want to leave the goalkeeper is a ball over the top of the defensive front into the fullback or a long ball into the center forward. These low success passes mean that a positive outcome is likely for Southampton (though if Asmir Begovic is the source of the long ball and the air is just right, all bets are off). Say the ball moves from a central to one of the center backs in a wider position, as Arsenal often split their center backs, then Southampton will move their players towards the ball-side (like Chile, Southampton are a side Tom Thibodeau could relate to and be proud of). This allows the Saints to flood that area of the pitch with bodies and kill the short passing options available to the center back. Once again, the ai???safeai??? option they leave the center back is to play a ball over the top. When the ball is in midfield, the front four will hustle back into defensive positions and look to press the ball carrier. This constant pressure allows Southampton to force errors and win the back close to goal, making their possession more efficient, with respect to scoring goals.

Southampton shifting over to the ball side to maintain pressure and eliminate passing options.

Southampton shifting over to the ball side to maintain pressure and eliminate passing options.

The most obvious solution to beating the press is to pass and move with high tempo so the defense cannot react quickly enough to the movement of the ball (to continue with the NBA references, think of how the Spursai??i?? and Mavericksai??i?? ball movement had so much success against the Miami Heatai??i??s hard rotating amoeba defense in the Finals). If Arsenalai??i??s pass-and-move game is clicking, then they will be able exploit the small passing windows available to them. This allows them to switch the side of play quickly or advance the ball rapidly up the field, taking Southampton defenders out of the play, which puts them in advantageous positions, further up the pitch, to make an assault on the goal (very similar to what happens in basketball when a press gets broken by ball movement and player movement, leading to a layup). This makes Santi Cazorla a key player for Arsenal. His ability to control the ball in tight spaces will be crucial against Southamptonai??i??s pressing. If he can successful retain possession, then players like Mesut Ozil and Aaron Ramsey can stay higher up the pitch, allowing Arsenal to move the ball up the pitch with greater efficiency.

Before news of Jack Wilshereai??i??s newest injury issue, Arsene Wenger could have gone with Jack Wilshere instead of Mikel Arteta as his deepest midfielder, to improve Arsenalai??i??s ability to break Southamptonai??i??s pressure. While Arteta is the better defensive player, tidier in possession, and more likely to deliver a quality long ball, he does not have the ability to beat the Southampton pressure off-the-dribble like Wilshere. If Wilshere is able to beat his marker using the dribble, the whole field opens up from Arsenal, as Wilshere marker is now in a poor defensive possession. It was this dribbling and ability to transition that allowed Wilshere to perform like a world-beater against Barcelona in 2011, who, for my money, are the greatest side since ai??i??72 Ajax. Though Wilshere may still be fit enough to play a role in this match, this strategy has a high degree of difficulty and requires most, if not all, Arsenal players to be on their A-game. Luckily, the return of Theo Walcott gives Arsenal another avenue to break the press.

Another option for Arsenal is the long ball over the top. In playing a high line, the defense is looking to take the area behind them out of play, by exploiting the offside rule. This strategy is particularly useful when going up against a striker like Olivier Giroud. Hitting a long ball beyond the back line for Olivier Giroud to chase is not the greatest option in the world given the center forwardai??i??s lack of pace. In this fixture, given Fonteai??i??s, and especially, Lovrenai??i??s aerial ability, playing balls in the air for Giroud to win is not most efficient method of attack.

The reason the long ball is an actual path to success for Arsenal in this match is that Theo Walcott appears fit to play. Against a team that plays a high line, a vertical threat is critical in beating those sides. While playing three central midfielders behind Giroud led to some fantastic fluid attacking football, the lack of pace left them vulnerable against side that reduced the space in front of the back line and behind the midfield lines. Walcott gives Arsenal a wide and high outlet to relieve the pressure that Arsenal have only had to a degree when Serge Gnabry got on the pitch. It also turns Arsenalai??i??s center backs and deep midfielders into chance creators. As described above, a high pressing side looks to win the ball back or force low efficiency long balls out of their opponents. With Theo Walcott, those low efficiency long balls become easier to complete and any completed one has a higher chance of leading to a goal-scoring opportunity. For any ball played in behind Lovren, Walcott has plenty of pace to beat the Southampton center back, and his finishing ability makes him a potent threat to score or play a final ball (decision-making aside). Southampton can accept the risk and keep the high line. Or, they can start moving their lines of defense deeper, starting with the back line. This helps create space, whether it is between the back line and midfield, in midfield, or just behind the pressing front. They could have Luke Shaw stay deep to cover those runs, but that blunts one of Southamptonai??i??s best attacking threats down the left flank. All these outcomes represent benefits for Arsenal and Theo Walcott alone can make any one of these outcomes possible. Although he is not as good of a player as Jack Wilshere, Tomas Rosicky, or Aaron Ramsey in that wide right position, against Southampton, he is certainly more valuable.

If Shaw does not stay deep to track Walcott's runs, or if Southampton do not drop their lines deep enough to reduce the amount of space between the goalkeeper and the back line, long balls over the top, especially diagonal balls from Koscielny, could do quite a bit of damage (something Dante of Bayern Munich excel at and is particularly devasting when Thomas Muller is wide right due to his aerial ability).

If Shaw does not stay deep to track Walcott’s runs, or if Southampton do not drop their lines deep enough to reduce the amount of space between the goalkeeper and the back line, long balls over the top, especially diagonal balls from Koscielny, could do quite a bit of damage (something Dante of Bayern Munich excel at and is particularly devasting when Thomas Muller is wide right due to his aerial ability).

Obviously, I did not cover all the tactical battles of this match. However, it appears that Arsenalai??i??s ability to cope with Southamptonai??i??s two defining characteristics, direct attacking football and their high press, will go the longest way in deciding whether Arsenal can get all three points against their toughest opponent so far in the English Premier League.

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